You Can't Handle The Truth!

I keep reading twaddle from the conservative side of the 'sphere that we have an economy that is just as good as the 90's but somehow the peasants are being hoodwinked by the MSM into thinking otherwise. Like hell.

Some excerpts from a post at an econ blog, starting with a bit of comedy:

The next movie on our list is a potentially exciting remake of "A Few Good Men". For reasons that will soon become apparent I will not be able to vote on this movie. Following are the script changes from the original as proposed by Snooky on Silicon Investor. Here goes:

Greenspan: You want answers?

mishedlo: I think I'm entitled to them.

Greenspan: You want answers?

mishedlo: I want the truth!

Greenspan: You can't handle the truth! Son, we live in a world that has markets. And those markets have to be guarded by men with dollars. Who's gonna do it? You? You, Patron? I have a greater responsibility than you can possibly fathom. You weep for Refco and you curse the Treasury. You have that luxury. You have the luxury of not knowing what I know: that Refco's death, while tragic, probably saved money. And my existence, while grotesque and incomprehensible to you, saves money...You don't want the truth. Because deep down, in places you don't talk about at parties, you want me in those markets. You need me in those markets.

We use words like honor, code, loyalty...we use these words as the backbone to a life spent defending something. You use 'em as a punchline.

I have neither the time nor the inclination to explain myself to a man who rises and sleeps under the blanket of the very liquidity I provide, then questions the manner in which I provide it! I'd rather you just said thank you and went on your way. Otherwise, I suggest you pick up a dollar bill and stand a post. Either way, I don't give a damn what you think you're entitled to!

mishedlo: Did you order the coupon pass?

Greenspan: (quietly) I did the job you sent me to do.

mishedlo: Did you order the coupon pass?

Greenspan: You're goddamn right I did!!

...

The latest job numbers were nothing but a complete disaster. The numbers were so bad I hardly know where to begin. If this was a movie, it would be a horror story. Let's start with Birth/Death assumptions.

Birth Death Assumptions

For new readers Birth/Death refers to assumptions about estimated jobs created or lost at this point in a recovery due to the creation or loss of businesses as opposed to the birth or death rate of individuals. (Click on graph for an enhanced view)

[graph]

Once again according to the Birth/Death assumptions 211,000 jobs were presumed to have been created in May of 2006 even as the past two months figures were revised lower. How long the BLS can get away with this nonsense is anyone's guess, but eventually the public has to wonder if it would be more accurate if the L was dropped from BLS.

Arguably the most critical number is the number of Part-Time Employed For Economic Reasons. That number was up over 159,000. It is an enormous number that is roughly twice the level of the headline growth for all jobs. Let that sink in. 159,000 people wanted full time employment but could not find it for "economic reasons". They are not counted as unemployed nor are those who benefits have expired, nor are those who just simply gave up. Unemployment would be 10% and rising if we counted it the way it was counted 20 years ago.

Quite honestly it gets tiring refuting such nonsense month after month, year in and year out. Let's look at it another way.

Three Questions

1. Do you really think Bush's approval rating would be under 30% if jobs were plentiful, and wages were rising?

2. Do you think there would be a concern about kicking out illegal immigrants if jobs were plentiful?

3. Do you really think there would be a discussion about building a wall on the Mexican border if immigrants were not taking jobs US citizens wanted?

I try and avoid politics but it is not always possible. At some point, no matter what the propaganda is, the public will simply stop believing the lies they are told. Lies and distortions about the CPI, or jobs, or the cost of gasoline, or medical expenses, or education can be hidden only for so long. Everyone knows I dislike this administration. My personal opinion is irrelevant. Bush's approval ratings under 30% are another matter. From a moral point of view the public would probably not care a rat's ass how many innocent Iraqis we killed if it created jobs here. That is the simplistic as well as the sad but unfortunate state of affairs. The fact of the matter is the only real source of jobs during this recovery was (past tense) housing. Housing is stalling and the public is responding.

I would like to believe that Bush's numbers reflect his ineptitude in Iraq, but to believe that would only be fooling myself. Bush's numbers are low because the economy is sinking, no more no less. That is not a moral judgment (unfortunately) but an economic one and like it or not I see little reason for those numbers to turn around.

Given that Wall Street seems to like Bush, we could be in for a very rough ride if Democrats take control of the House or the Senate or both. You may agree or disagree with my obvious dislike of Bush, but from an economic standpoint his approval rating numbers are what they are, and those numbers are pathetic. I am but one vote out of millions, yet the undeniable fact is the general population has had enough. Whether or not you agree with my personal opinions or not, look at public sentiment towards this administration and ask yourself if you want to be long this market. This post is not about politics or movies or housing, it is about making money. On the other hand politics is money and the politics have changed.