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The end state of war is victory and "victory" is a word not often heard from our leadership. Instead, one gets the distinct impression that, speeches to graduates of military institutions aside, the President and his core group would prefer it if Americans and the world began to think of the Iraq stage of the First Terrorist War as a kind of Tsunami relief effort with guns; a Katrina where, from time to time, under carefully vetted conditions, rioters with explosives and automatic weapons might, just might, get shot with rubber bullets. I submit that as a policy and tone this is a clueless condition that cannot be sustained for an indefinite period.
We need to snap out of our pastoral stripmalled stupor. We need to stop pretending. The goal of the Terrorist War must shift from the oft-trumpeted plan of "implanting democracy and bringing freedom" to one of unconditional victory over Islamic Totalitarianism. While "giving the gift of democracy" is a comforting and warm notion on which to run for re-election, it does nothing to achieve victory, since it denies that victory is a goal. Instead, according to the prevailing message being repeated ad nauseum from the administration, "democracy and freedom" are the goals of this war. This is sheer propaganda.
Democracy and freedom for others cannot be the goals of war. They can only be the fruits of something more primal -- victory. Absent the goal of victory, this will indeed become "The Forever War," and America cannot sustain such an effort. In historic terms, the American will to wage war suffers a serious fall-off after three years of fighting unless victory can be see as a clear end state, and only then if progress toward victory is repeatedly demonstrated on the ground. We are already beyond the three year limit, and it is unlikely that Americans can be made to care much longer, in the face of trickle-down casualty rates, whether or not Iraqis ever become free and democratic. Indeed, if most Americans were woken from a sound sleep in the middle of the night and asked the question, they would blurt out that they don't give a damn about the squabbling Iraqis.
Absent a plan for victory, the current state of a low-level, hunt-and-peck war in Iraq will cease to be supported. The conflict will soon become either a hunkered down, bunkered up Korean policing program, or it will fizzle and gutter out. To gutter out and retreat would be to court disastrous consequences for the United States in the short term and the entire world in the future; a future more costly to the planet in terms of life, liberty and treasure than anything currently being done in Iraq.
You think not? Imagine a second 9/11 on the same or a larger scale. That's what the Canada 17 were planning. Imagine the American response to such an attack. Do you know where our 18 ballistic missile submarines are? No? Neither do I, but if you know what they can do you know that the nuclear payload on any single one of them is the end of the Islamic world. I don't know about you, but I'd prefer if it all did not quite come to that. I'm sure the residents of Tehran, if they were free to speak, would agree.
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Without the announcement of and an immediate and sustained move to obtain victory in Iraq, the whole momentum of the Terrorist War, always shaky, will slow as it has and, in time, reverse itself. At that point the administration will indeed find itself in the often-predicted quagmire, except that it will be on its own making. It is perfectly feasible that in concentrating too hard on winning the hearts and mind of the Iraqi people, we will lose the Iraq portion of the war. Once that occurs then all that is left is to wait for the second and more deadly path to open in the Terrorist War.
The tragedy is that the second path, the path of Total War in which extreme new rules of engagement come into play, requires the triggering event of a second catastrophic attack on American civilians on American soil. That event, should it be allowed to occur, will cost the lives of thousands if not tens of thousands of American men, women and, this time, children. This is not to say that the clear quest for victory in Iraq, a quest that requires the utter defeat of the enemy no matter how dearly bought, will insure that no such attack happens in America. It is to say that, should we retreat from and fail to secure victory in Iraq, such an event moves from a probability to a certainty.
As demonstrated above, the American response to such another lethal attack on the homeland is not hard to visualize. The only question will be whether or not the state of total war that erupts will include nuclear weapons as a first option, or whether America will be content to level and destroy large Middle-Eastern states and populations with conventional weapons, holding back nuclear weapons as a final persuader. In either case, the opening salvos placed onto the countries involved will be far more staggering than anything seen since the closing days of the air war in the European and Pacific theaters of World War II.
But an air war against Iran, Syria, portions of Iraq and other Middle Eastern nations would only be the opening salvos. Indeed, it is not hard to see an extended air campaign as merely buying time while the country at last moves onto a war footing.
Following the reinstitution of the draft in the United States and the conversion of its present economy of affluence to a war economy, an invasion and occupation of these areas of the world would follow. This time it would not be an occupation in search of a democracy, but one in search of vengeance and security for the United States. This situation would reshape the face of the Earth for generations and perhaps centuries to come. It would be a realignment of the political sphere at home and abroad not seen since Rome. And it will make Rome look like a mere off-hand study.
The specter of an America galvanized into a society that takes classic imperialism seriously is not something that the 21st century has any real preparation for, least of all the United States. But make no mistake, these changes would be the default state of the nation following any serious attack on its home soil. It would, within ten years, create a nation that does not resemble the United States of today. Exactly what it would be, I cannot say, but I would not like to find out. If you are one of those who presently has confused George Bush with Adolph Hitler and the NSA with Big Brother, you will like it much, much less. So much so that you will, at last prepare to move to Canada only to find that they will not let you in and what used to be America will not let you out. Sound familiar? It should.
Which is why, if we value real and enduring freedom in America, we need to now look very seriously at any policy which restrains our armed forces now in Iraq, Afghanistan and elsewhere from pressing forward to victory. Fighting the terrorist with one hand behind our back, a "Have a nice day" attitude, and an overarching concern for civilian hearts and minds does not, in the long run, do anyone any favors. At home or abroad.
Yes. But we had to try. It still may well work. And if not? We'll be that much more able to do what needs doing, knowing that we did try. And the leftists be damned who did all in their power to make the attempt fail.
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