Wednesday, July 22, 2009

Breakdown

Looking into the numbers, things are far worse for ObamaCare than first meets the eye:

Rasmussen, which first started reporting the erosion of support Barack Obama enjoyed last month, now shows that Obama’s major domestic policy objective has suffered a 14-point flip in support. Late in June, Barack Obama’s health-care policy had a 50%-45% edge in support from voters. Today, 53% of voters oppose it, with support dropping to 44%, and support is much softer than opposition:

The health care reform legislation working its way through Congress has lost support over the past month. The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey shows that 44% of U.S. voters are at least somewhat in favor of the reform effort while 53% are at least somewhat opposed.

Today’s 44% level of support is down from 46% two weeks ago, and 50% in late June.

Opposition has grown from 45% in late June to 49% two weeks ago and 53% today.

As in earlier surveys, those with strong opinions are more likely to oppose the plan rather than support it. The current numbers: 24% strongly favor and 37% strongly oppose.

Both men and women oppose ObamaCare by majorities, 57% and 50%, respectively. The only age demographic supporting it is the 18-29 year olds; opposition constitutes a majority in all other age demographics except 40-49, where it has a plurality opposed (48-46).

Most problematic for Obama is the flight of independents, who oppose the bill 60-38. That’s not his only problem, though. People making more than $40K per year strongly oppose ObamaCare:

* $40-60K: 62% oppose
* $60-75K: 74% oppose
* $75-100K: 65% oppose
* $100K+: 51% oppose

Those numbers represent the middle class, except for a portion of the last demographic (I’d hardly call $100K/year “rich”, although Obama may not agree). If the middle class aligns 2-1 against ObamaCare, we can understand why Congress has suddenly gotten skittish about pursuing it. The middle class sees their choices getting taken from them and in return getting a big bill to pay for a new government entitlement, and they don’t like it a bit. If Obama keeps pressing on this plan, the Democrats can kiss off those middle-class voters they wooed in 2008 by promising them no new taxes and fiscal sanity.

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