Tuesday, June 14, 2005

Epistemology And Ontology. Know The Difference.

Some whack logic quoted here:
"Mortgage bankers say the risks of pulling equity from homes have been lessened by two key factors: the assumption that the value of Hawaii real estate will keep rising and the belief that real estate, at least for now, is far less risky than the sluggish stock market. 'It's not a bad thing to do,' said Gayle Ishima, president of the Mortgage Bankers Association of Hawaii."
Exsqueeze me? Risk is an objective thing. Risks are what they are, even if they are not known accurately. Risks are not changed by "assumptions" and "beliefs". The quote is essentially saying "Risk is lowered because people believe there is less risk." So, I take it, then, that someone driving with their knees, yacking on their cell phone with one hand and trading off between eating a sandwich and applying mascara with the other is a safer driver because they aren't perceiving any risk?

The implied principle goes against all my experience as a pilot. It's when you are not worried that you might be screwing up that you are screwing up.

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