Thursday, December 01, 2005

Nice Mainstream ID Article

Well, I consider National Review to be mainstream (compared to mere websites), anyway. Good stuff.

excerpt:

George Will tells us that evolution is a fact. Is it? It depends on what you mean by evolution. Add an antibiotic to a dish of bacteria, so that some die and some survive, and bacterial resistance may be seen. This is said to illustrate natural selection — Charles Darwin's great discovery and claim to fame — and, therefore, evolution in action. Charles Krauthammer is pleased to tell us that the advocates of intelligent design "admit" that natural selection "explains such things as the development of drug resistance."

Petri Politics
But what actually happens in the Petri dish? Some of the bacteria are naturally equipped with enzymes that give them immunity to the antibiotic. So they survive, while most of the bacteria die. Nutrients remain in the dish, and the resistant strain now has an ample food supply and multiplies. Before, it could hardly compete with the far more abundant strain, now wiped out. So the (pre-existing) resistant strain becomes more numerous. There is a multiplication of something that already existed. But as the famous geneticist Thomas Hunt Morgan said about 100 years ago — he spent years studying fruit flies at Columbia University and was rewarded with the Nobel Prize — evolution means making new things, not more of what already exists.

Nonetheless, if you define evolution as a change of gene ratios, well, yes, there has been such a change of ratios in the population of bacteria. So, if your definition of evolution is sufficiently modest, then you can call evolution a fact. Others define evolution as "change over time." That's a fact, too.

But we know perfectly well that, to its devotees, evolution means something much more than that.

We are expected to believe — and I do mean believe — that evolution answers the important question: How did life, in all its abundance, appear on Earth? By the slow, successive modification of pre-existing forms, Darwin said. Go back far enough, to one of those warm little ponds Darwinians assume must have existed, and we would find that life started of its own accord from nothing in particular. Over the eons, atoms and molecules whirled themselves into ever more complicated structures. Eventually the best and brightest acquired consciousness, and started to ask: "How did we get here?" The usual answer was: "We seem to have been intelligently designed." Then others replied: "Oh, no, no, no, we all started in a warm little pond, way back."

Just the Facts
Whom to believe? Or maybe we should approach it more scientifically: What are the facts?

If we discount trivial examples like bacterial resistance or "change over time" or small changes in beak size among the finches of the Galapagos Islands, we don't know very much about evolution at all. We don't see it happening around us, or in the rocks.

...

So let's look at the evidence adduced for evolution. The fossil record is sparse. Bats, for example — the only mammals capable of powered flight — appear suddenly in the fossil record, with their sonar systems already fully developed. "There are no half bats," as a world expert on bats once said. The experts have no idea what animal gave rise to the first bat.

The creatures that evolution purports to explain are fantastically complex. The cell, thought at the time of Darwin to be a "simple little lump of protoplasm," is as complicated as a high-tech factory. We have no actual evidence that it evolved — and yet we are asked, indeed obliged, to believe that it did.

In the human body, there are 300 trillion cells, and each "knows" what part it must play in the growing organism. To this day, embryologists have no idea how this happens — even though they have been trying to figure it out for 150 years.

Imagine an automobile company that came out with a new model that could do the remarkable things that living creatures do. How amazed we would be! The car would be able to repair itself, if not damaged too badly. Dent it and, in a few days, the dent is gone. It needs to rest for a few hours every day but it can keep going for 80 years on bread and water, with perhaps vegetables thrown in. And it can hook up with another version of the same automobile, and produce in a few months' time new, tiny versions of itself, which will then grow up to full-size autos with the ability to reproduce in turn.

We have been unable to do anything remotely like this in the lab. Yet we are surrounded by lowly creatures that do these things every day — and we express no amazement. We have been trained to be blasé about the marvels of creation. "Oh, evolution did that," we say. "It was just a matter of random mutation; nothing surprising there." "These things arose by accident and were selected for."

That phrase — "it was selected for" — is regarded as a sufficient explanation for . . . everything. The same mundane phrase is given as the explanation for everything under the sun. How did the bats get sonar? "It arose by an accidental mutation of the genes and was selected for. Next question?" How did the eye develop? "Piecemeal. There was a random mutation and it conferred an advantage so it was selected for. Then the same thing happened over and over again. Next question?" How did the camel get its hump? "Random mutations conferred some advantage and so they were selected for. Next question?"

This is the science before which all knees must bend? These explanations are no better than "Just-So stories" (as one or two Harvard professors have rightly said). No actual digging in the dirt is needed: The theorist merely contemplates the trait in question and makes up a plausible story as to how it might have been advantageous.

We fear questioning the evolutionist dogma. Someone might call us fanatical. "Intemperate" was the word George Will used. So we go along with the dogmas of materialism, lest we be considered ignorant or uneducated or driven by a religious agenda.

Charles Krauthammer tells us that Isaac Newton was religious and if he saw no conflict between science and religion, why can't we take our thin gruel of evolutionary science like good children and be satisfied, without dragging a Designer into the picture?

Because it isn't real science, Charles. Newton, in fact, thought that the "most beautiful system" of sun, planets, and comets could "only proceed from the counsel and dominion of an intelligent and powerful being." But the laws of physics that govern these motions are simplicity itself compared with the immense complexity of the biological machinery that governs the development, proliferation, growth, and aging of millions of reproductive species. These mechanisms have yet to be discovered or described. To believe that the feeble tautology of natural selection — laissez-faire political economy from the 1830s imported into biology — constitutes a sufficient explanation of the marvels of nature is to display a credulity that makes our fundamentalists seem sagacious by comparison.

George Will has made one accurate criticism of the idea he so dislikes: "The problem with intelligent design is not that it is false but that it is not falsifiable. Not being susceptible to contradicting evidence, it is not a testable hypothesis." This is true; but he should have added that Darwin's theory of evolution by natural selection is not falsifiable either. Darwin's claim to fame was his discovery of a mechanism of evolution; he accepted "survival of the fittest" as a good summary of his natural-selection theory. But which ones are the fittest? The ones that survive. There is no criterion of fitness that is independent of survival. Whatever happens, it is the "fittest" that survive — by definition. This, just like intelligent design, is not a testable hypothesis. As the eminent philosopher of science Karl Popper said, after discussing this problem that natural selection cannot escape: "There is hardly any possibility of testing a theory as feeble as this." Popper was the first to propose falsification as the line of demarcation between theories that are scientific and those that are not; both intelligent design and natural selection fall by this standard.

The underlying problem, rarely discussed, is that the conclusions of evolutionism are based not on science, but on a philosophy: the philosophy of materialism, or naturalism. Living creatures, including human beings, are here on Earth, and we got here somehow. If atoms and molecules in motion are all that exist, then their random interactions must account for everything that exists, including us. That is the true underpinning of Darwinism. What needs to be examined in detail is not so much the religion behind intelligent design as the philosophy behind evolution.

But that is a sermon for another day.

5 comments:

Anonymous said...

This article is utter garbage, but I suppose that _is_ "mainstream" for ID apologetics. I am only going to spend time debunking one bad argument and identifying others, since I have other things to do.

This essay starts by arguing that we can only see small changes happening around us, and so small changes in the past could not explain life as we see it today because life has so many changes.

Suppose I sat down at lunch and watched men working on a construction site while I ate. I might only see them pour a bit of concrete one day. I might only see them rivet a few steel beams. But there is work going on that I do not notice -- because I'm paying attention to my sandwich instead of the work site, or because I can't see the whole site. Now imagine that the construction project was supposed to take over SIX THOUSAND YEARS. Is one hour of observations during lunch supposed to tell me what can or cannot be achieved in a 6,400 year project?

(I assume that life has been actively evolving for two billion years, and we have been watching it with an eye on evolution for a hundred. These are generous numbers, since macroscopic fossils have beed dated to at least 2.1 BYA and we had no good model to explain or quantify evolutionary changes before DNA's discovery. Life has been around for at least twenty million times as long as we have been able and of a mind to measure its evolution. If the construction site works ten hours a day, six days a week, it would take about 6,400 years to reach twenty million hours of work.)

If you want a more strictly physical analogy, is going on a one-hour boat tour of Niagara Falls supposed to make it obvious that the falls moved a mile and a half upstream over the last 2200 years? (niagaraparks.com says the falls have eroded at 1-1.5 m/year for at least the past 560 years; here also, I pick the conservative end of the range.)

Most people have trouble thinking about geological time scales. Scaling it down like that makes the relative times a lot more understandable.

A little Googling turns up a very good reason for "half-bats" to not show up in the fossil record: http://qurl.net/of.

The idea that we have no idea how cells (in particular, human cells) differentiate is poppycock.

Bethell also confuses (in an apparently deliberate way) Darwin's evolutionary theory with what he acknowledges is a four-word _summary_ of the theory ("survival of the fittest"). Is it appropriate to claim that ID is indefensibly vague as science because you can summarize it as saying "God made it so"?

Matteo said...

I'm sorry, but your analogy is absolutely spurious and unconvincing. You might as well say, "Look, I can see these guys steadily adding stories to their skyscraper, so of course, given enough time, they'll reach the moon!"

Honestly, you seem to have little understanding of probability, complexity, and warranted extrapolation from evidence.

Bottom line, Darwinism is crumbling, and arguments such as yours do nothing to help save it.

As an electrical engineer, I have no problem whatsoever thinking about geological timescales. The work I did dealt with reality on the scale of picoseconds, so believe, me, I have no problem understanding time at different orders of magnitude. A couple of billion years amounts to 10^16 seconds, which is nothing whatsoever when compared to the probabilities you so glibly ignore.

Sorry, but your counterargument is laughable to me.

Also, thanks for your comment to the post following this one (it reads like you wrote it, so forgive my assumption). So what do you prefer for my special punishment from the God you don't believe in? Is burning in Hell enough for folks who disagree with you? Or do you prefer something worse? Your sentiment is simply juvenile. You convince me that I am on the right track in my scientific assessment of Intelligent Design, and for this, I thank you.

Anonymous said...

As a software engineer (with a electrical and computer engineering degree), I think the one who misunderstands probability is you, but we went through that in a previous comment. Do not make the most common statistical mistake of ID's guiding lights and confuse the likelihood of arriving at some significant change with the likelihood of arriving at a particular set of changes (especially if several possible forms of change are ignored). Since you cite absolutely no numbers or models, though, your argument amounts to nothing but an appeal to authority. Calling my argument laughable while countering with a rhetorical fallacy is, frankly, bizarre.

As for punishments, I prefer more proportionate approach than burning in hell for all time for lesser sins: for example, whatever eternity one might otherwise have earned, but punctuated by others making generally misinformed facile criticisms of your work. The harsher punishments of Dante's Inferno should be reserved for the truly evil, not just the malignantly ignorant.

Matteo said...

Well, thanks for the manumission in my sentence, Mr. Anonymous. It sounds like you are making a standard prescription for purgatory. I expect to be doing some time there, anyway, so no harm done.

I find my "ignorance" to be rather benign, not malignant, but malevolence is in the eye of the beholder, I suppose.

Yes, I failed to cite authoritative numbers in my post. I know that putting numbers like SIX THOUSAND YEARS in all caps does make for a very strong scientific argument, and I regret that I failed to take advantage of such a slam-dunk method of proof. Also, I tend to take an hour and fifteen minutes for lunch, so your argument fails. Moreover, you castigate me for making assumptions about what can or cannot be achieved in precisely 6,400 years, while yourself full of presumption about what can be achieved. So, if there is uncertainty, you win, I lose. Fair enough.

But, in all honesty (really!), thanks for commenting, now and in the past. I do enjoy the back-and-forth.

Anonymous said...

What manumission? My first post on punishment said nothing about the form. I try to be more consistent than that.

Your reaction to that is, from my perspective, a parallel to ID. You saw something -- in this case a comment about punishment, in the ID case a living thing -- and made a conclusion about it. It turned out the conclusion was wrong, as indicated by further information. In response, you add complexity to your model rather than discard it.

Even if you take 75 minutes for lunch instead of 60, it would still be a 5000 year construction project, and we do not have inhabited cities that old, much less single construction projects. The exact duration was not the point; the order of magnitude was. (Would you prefer a sandpile analogy?) To paraphrase Ev Dirksen, if you add up a million tweaks here, a million there, pretty soon you're talking real change.

(I am not sure if you meant "Mr. Anonymous" as a criticism or merely a label. My anonymous posting was primarily to avoid spam, not a desire to hide my identity from you or other readers. I had incorrectly assumed that "Other" posting would require a globally visible email address; since I see it does not, I shall post using my name from now on.)