Deflation Checklist

From this Mish post:

In Humpty Dumpty on Inflation I proposed a series of conditions one might expect to see in deflation. Let's take a look at the current state of those conditions.

Falling Treasury Yields - Yes
Falling Home Prices - Yes, as measured by Case-Shiller
Rising Corporate Bond Yields - Not substantially - Yet. However sovereign credit spreads are widening
Rising Dollar - Yes
Falling Commodity Prices - Yes as measured by the $CRB from the beginning of 2010
Falling Consumer Prices - Yes (or at least close) as measured by the CPI. My preferred measure would directly include home prices and that would/will tip the CPI negative soon enough. I consider housing (but not the land it sits on) a consumer good.
Rising Unemployment - It is high and essentially steady. My model suggests no improvement at best, and far more likely new highs above 11%
Falling Stock Market - Yes as measured since the start of the year
Falling Credit Marked to Market - Yes, most assuredly
Spiking Base Money supply as Fed fights Deflation - This depends on your timeframe, but charts sure show a spike - Another spike is likely
Banks Hoarding Cash - Falling consumer loans - Declining bank credit - Yes, Yes, Yes
Rising Savings Rate - Yes. The US savings rate rose to an 8-month high in May
Purchasing power of gold rising - Yes
Rising numbers of bank failures - Yes

Nearly every condition one would expect to see in deflation is happening, The few that aren't are close at hand and likely. If those are the things one would expect to see in deflation, and the scorecard is close to unanimous, I suggest that those who say this is not deflation have the wrong definition.

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Bernanke's Deflation Prevention Scorecard

In case no one is keeping track, Bernanke has now fired every bullet from his 2002 “helicopter drop” speech Deflation: Making Sure "It" Doesn't Happen Here.

Bernanke's Scorecard

Here is Bernanke’s roadmap, and a “point-by-point” list from that speech.

1. Reduce nominal interest rate to zero. Check. That didn’t work...
2. Increase the number of dollars in circulation, or credibly threaten to do so. Check. That didn’t work...
3. Expand the scale of asset purchases or, possibly, expand the menu of assets it buys. Check & check. That didn’t work...
4. Make low-interest-rate loans to banks. Check. That didn’t work...
5. Cooperate with fiscal authorities to inject more money. Check. That didn’t work...
6. Lower rates further out along the Treasury term structure. Check. That didn’t work...
7. Commit to holding the overnight rate at zero for some specified period. Check. That didn’t work...
8. Begin announcing explicit ceilings for yields on longer-maturity Treasury debt (bonds maturing within the next two years); enforce interest-rate ceilings by committing to make unlimited purchases of securities at prices consistent with the targeted yields. Check, and check. That didn’t work...
9. If that proves insufficient, cap yields of Treasury securities at still longer maturities, say three to six years. Check (they’re buying out to 7 years right now.) That didn’t work...
10. Use its existing authority to operate in the markets for agency debt. Check (in fact, they “own” the agency debt market!) That didn’t work...
11. Influence yields on privately issued securities. (Note: the Fed used to be restricted in doing that, but not anymore.) Check. That didn’t work...
12. Offer fixed-term loans to banks at low or zero interest, with a wide range of private assets deemed eligible as collateral (…Well, I’m still waiting for them to accept bellybutton lint & Beanie Babies, but I’m sure my patience will be rewarded. Besides their “mark-to-maturity” offers will be more than enticing!) Anyway… Check. That didn’t work...
13. Buy foreign government debt (and although Ben didn’t specifically mention it, let’s not forget those dollar swaps with foreign nations.) Check. That didn’t work...

Bernanke has failed. "It" has happened.